Thursday, October 21, 2010

Week 7 picks: Harrison not retiring, Henne enters witness protection

By Jeff

Week 6 was so ugly for me I'm mind of ashamed to share my tally. It was 4-9-1, dropping me to 37-49-4 on the season. Vegas would love it if I gambled! I'm doing so poorly, Swan told me I should just stop doing the spread and just pick games straight up. As tempting as that is, I must press on. Maybe I'll have a big second half.

Week 6's big miss was thinking San Diego would play well enough on the road to not only beat the St. Louis Rams, but cover too. Neither happened.

As for Week 7, I'm excited to see what James Harrison does to Chad Henne. If you hadn't heard by now, Harrison was fined for killing a few Browns last week and thought about retiring. Not because of the damage he did. No, he was talking retirement because he is concerned the NFL won't let him hurt people anymore without fining him. Well, Harrison returned to practice today, meaning Chad Henne is probably having nightmares of the Silverback decapitating him on a blind side blitz. I can't wait.

Week 7 picks are below and the home team is in all caps.

Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI: Kelson and I have a $5 bet that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams won't combine for 100 rushing yards. Unlike most of my picks, I have a lot of confidence that I'll win this bet. The Steelers have surrendered 58, 46, 75, 70 and 69 rushing yards in their first five games for an average of 63.6. If I were Miami, I wouldn't even try to run. Of course, if they don't run at all, Harrison and LaMar Woodley are going to destroy Chad Henne. It's not going to be pretty for Dolphins fans.

ATLANTA (-3.5) over Cincinnati: Has anyone watched "The T. Ocho Show"? I hope not.

KANSAS CITY (-7) over Jacksonville: David Garrard is out and the Jaguars looked terrible Monday night. But they have looked terrible before and rebounded earlier this season. But they didn't have Todd Bouman starting those rebound games.

Philadelphia (+3) over TENNESSEE: The Eagles had an impressive victory against the Falcons last week. They won't have DeSean Jackson for this contest, but Kevin Kolb seems to be gaining confidence with the deep ball. I also see Tennessee struggling after a short week.

Washington (+3) at CHICAGO: No reasoning, really. Both teams are inconsistent, which seems to be a running theme in the NFL this season. The question is, will Jay Cutler or Donovan McNabb make the big plays or the big mistakes. You know how I feel about Cutler. He's going to get beat up by the Washington defense and McNabb will not cost his team the game.

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Cleveland: I'm 1-5 in predicting New Orleans games this season. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Buffalo: Expect the Ravens to have a big rebound from their overtime loss to the Patriots last week. Ray Rice is going to have a lot of fun running around and through the crummy Buffalo defense. On the other side of the ball, Ed Reed is back. He's not 100 percent, but who can actually name the Bills' receivers after Lee Evans? I'm out after Roscoe Parrish.

San Francisco (-3) at CAROLINA: Steve Smith returns for Carolina and Matt Moore will be behind center. Smith returning is exciting for Panthers fans. Moore and his sub 50 passer rating? Not so much.

St. Louis (+3) over TAMPA BAY: I wanted to pick St. Louis last week against San Diego but wussed out. Consider this my way of making it up to them. They'll never forgive me.

Arizona (+5.5) over SEATTLE: Call me crazy, but I just don't understand how the Seahawks can be favored by more than 3 points in any game.

New England (+2.5) over SAN DIEGO: The 2-4 team that has lost to the Oakland Raiders, Seahawks, Rams and Chiefs is favored to beat the 4-1 team that just came off a big win against the Ravens? I get that the Chargers are home, but they are not playing good football right now. Their starting receivers will also be Craig "Buster" Davis and Patrick Crayton. Is home field really so much of an advantage that they can overcome these obstacles?

DENVER (-8.5) over Oakland: Kyle Orton was held in check last week. It won't happen again this week. Would you have ever imagined reading that statement two years ago?

GREEN BAY (-2.5) over Minnesota: Until Brett Favre actually plays a good or great game, I just don't have confidence in the Vikings.

New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS: I'm definitely going with my heart on this one. I'd love to see Dallas finish the season at 4-12 or 5-11 after all the hype they got in the offseason. It would be beautiful.

The Beatles - The Long and Winding Road


  1. Tampa over St. Louis.

    I know Tampa was an over-rated 2-0 team, but Freeman still looks pretty good, and its defense is still over average.

    I hesitated over the San Diego pick, just because I love how Rivers plays, but the team just doesn't have that spark anymore. Then again, they always play well against the Patriots...who knows.

  2. It pains me greatly to pick the Patriots, but they beat the Chargers any time a game has any kind of significance.

  3. I cant fathom why you are picking on Chad Henne. The Dolphins have arguably one of the best OLines in football (tied for 8th in least amount of sacks allowed - with your Steelers no less.) They definitely have the best Left Tackle in the AFC right now and Chad Henne is a 3rd year QB, it's not like the Dolphins are rolling out Max Hall.

    I legitimately can't understand why you are so adamant that Harrison is going to "destroy" Henne. For christ's sake he couldnt even sack Josh Freeman. Yikes.

  4. Because he is going to be really angry. I never said it was going to be a sack or a legal hit. He might just attack Henne when he is standing on the sidelines.

  5. If any contributors admit to watching the t.ocho show, you should block their account for 2 weeks. Unless it's Greg, then it should be 4 weeks. I hold him to a higher standard.

  6. I am with Dwayne on the Tampa game, I like Tampa -3 at home, mainly because the Rams defense is not nearly as good on the road as it at home and Bradford's road numbers are very shaky.

    Also, like Carolina +3. Both teams suck, but a return from Smith gives the 49ers someone they have to respect in the passing game which should give DeAngelo Williams (the most underused top 10 back in the NFL) more room to run. Plus, Vernon Davis may be limited and Alex Smith is always good for a few picks.

  7. Hahaha I've never really thought about watching the show, but I am suddenly intrigued.