MLB Playoff Predictions

by Greg

Before I begin, one thing I’ve noticed about these match ups is the pitching. If you’re a baseball fan and you love great pitching, this is the year to sit down and watch as much baseball as you can fit into your schedule. October is a great month. All major sports in the United States are active for a short amount of time. Think of it this way. Football will still be there in January (and February if you’re a Steelers fan). Hockey will still be there in April (and June if you’re a Penguins fan). I don’t really watch basketball because my city doesn’t have that sport, but you get the picture. Watch post season baseball!!! This is as good as it gets.

As always, anyone else’s choices would be welcome if you want to leave them in the comments section.

American League Division Series:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers

Regular Season Series: Tampa Bay (4-2)

Runs scored per game: Advantage Tampa Bay (802-787)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage Tampa Bay (649-687)

Longoria and Hamilton are both banged up. Longo is already sick of hearing his critics remind him of his mediocre performance in last year’s post season. The Rays have been struggling to score runs this past week and some analysts are saying that they’ve gone cold at the wrong time. Predicting the Rays’ chances this post season is kind of like how I feel about USA soccer. I could see them getting swept in the first round, but I can also see them finding their groove and dominating.

Both teams have excellent bullpens, and they’re going to need them in this high octane offensive match up. Cliff Lee is money in the bank in October, but he faces another impressive ace. Look for David Price to outduel Cliff Lee in game one. It appears that both clubs are going with a four man rotation in this short series. The Rangers have confidence in Tommy Hunter’s ability to pitch at home and have slated him to start game four, even if they are down two games to one. I think Wade Davis will walk away the victor in that match up. Tommy Hunter will pitch well, but the Rangers’ offense will fade away under the bright lights of October baseball.

Prediction: Tampa Bay in 4

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Regular Season Series: New York (4-2)

Runs scored per game: Advantage New York (859-781)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage Minnesota (671-693)

A lot of people are drooling over the Rangers vs. Rays series, but I think this will be the most exciting opening round match up to watch. Not many people are giving the Twins a chance in this series because they don’t have Justin Morneau in the lineup. Obviously that is going to hurt, especially when you’re trying to out-slug the Yankees. But since Morneau went on the DL in early July, the Twins have had the best record in baseball. Not sayin, just sayin.

Just for the record, the Twins are my favorite non-Pittsburgh MLB team for obvious reasons. “Why don’t they just get a house that’s already painted?”

I really want to pick the Twinkies in this match up, but I think they’re going to come up short. However, the short series might work in their favor. They have a better rotation with Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, and Brian Duensing all pitching very effectively late in the season. The Yankees are currently undecided, but likely will counter with C.C. Sabathia, Andy Petitte, and Phil “an 11-2 record at the break isn’t good enough to make Zanic’s All Star team” Hughes. A.J. Burnett is likely to be used out of the bullpen because he has been horrendous near the end of the season (since the beginning of August these are his stats: 12 GS, 65.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 53 K, 28 BB).

Despite the best reliever in MLB history suiting up for New York, I’m going to give the edge to Minnesota’s bullpen in this match up. Brand new Target Field will be rocking in the first two games, which will provide a huge advantage as the Twins try to get past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2002. I have a hunch that the Twins will either go up 2-0 or 2-1, but the Yankees’ offense will break out in games four and five to secure the series.

Prediction: New York in 5

National League Division Series:

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

Regular Season Series: Philadelphia (5-2)

Runs scored per game: Advantage Cincinnati (790-772)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage Philadelphia (640-685)

The Reds enter the playoffs for the first time since 1995. Not only do they lack experience, but they have to face the back-to-back National League Champions. In my mind the Phillies appear to have the best all around team heading into the playoffs. I’m sure the Cincinnati Reds love that no one is giving them a shot in this series. If they can somehow sneak by Halladay with a win in game one, they have a shot. Good luck with that.

The Reds will send Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto to the mound. Each pitcher is capable of shutting down the Phillies, but they are all very streaky. Edinson Volquez is on fire and he has the best stuff on the Reds’ staff, but if I could pick one pitcher to start on my team this October, I’d take Roy Halladay and I wouldn’t think twice. He hasn’t been to the post season, but he is definitely built for it. The pressure that Halladay and Roy Oswalt have taken off the young Cole Hamels should not be overlooked. I expect Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels to dominate this series with the knowledge that their offense is healthy and consistently producing runs. The injury to J.C. Romero is going to hurt the already shaky Phillies bullpen, but I don’t expect that to make a difference in this series. Think of the Chicago White Sox in 2005. It doesn’t really matter what your bullpen looks like if your pitchers are all going eight innings.

Prediction: Philadelphia in 4

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves

Regular Season Series: Atlanta (4-3)

Runs scored per game: Advantage Atlanta (738-697)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage San Francisco (583-629)

“We’re in the playoffs and you don’t want to face us.” – Brian Wilson

It’s not cocky and it’s not bulletin board material, it’s the truth. The Giants enter the post season with an insane amount of momentum. They won the NL West on the last day of the season after trailing by 6.5 games on August 26. Their pitchers combined for a ridiculous 1.78 ERA in September to lead the white hot Giant into the playoffs. Everything just seems to be falling in place at the right time for them. Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez are healthy again. Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey are carrying the offense on their shoulders, while Kung Fu Panda is waiting for his first taste of the post season to strike. They might not go the distance, but we’ve seen it before where a team picks the right time of the year to find their game.

Not to be outdone, there was another team that made the playoffs on the last game of the season. The Atlanta Braves beat out the San Diego Padres for the Wild Card spot by one game, returning to the post season for the first time since their consecutive playoff appearance streak was snapped in 2006. Maybe since this is Bobby Cox’s last year, the Braves will actually sell out their home games.

This will probably be the lowest scoring series in the playoffs, so mistakes will be held under a magnifying glass. Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson have had great seasons, but I expect Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathon Sanchez to steal the show.

Prediction: San Francisco in 3

American League Championship Series:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Regular Season Series: Tampa Bay (10-8)

Runs scored per game: Advantage New York (859-802)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage Tampa Bay (649-693)

I’m going with the Rays because they have more depth in their starting pitching. They have the better number two starter, number three starter, and a better bullpen. Look for Price to split with Sabathia, while Garza does enough to get his team the win in each of his two starts as they clinch their second American League Championship in three years in front of 9,000 screaming Floridians.

Come on, people in Tampa Bay! Support your Rays!!! Home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs isn’t worth much if you don’t show up!

Prediction: Tampa Bay in 6

National League Championship Series:

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants

Regular Season Series: Tie (3-3)

Runs scored per game: Advantage Philadelphia (772-697)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage San Francisco (583-640)

This series will feature two amazing rotations:

Halladay vs. Lincecum – three Cy Young Awards between these two pitchers and Doc knows that his second is in the bag

Oswalt vs. Cain – the battle of invisible WHIPs

Hamels vs. Sanchez – two young flame throwers that have the potential to put up double digit strikeout totals every time they step on the mound

In the regular season the Giants scored the fewest runs of any team that made the playoffs. In the end that will prove to be the reason they come up short against the Phillies. The Giants have never won a World Series in San Francisco since they moved from New York in 1958 and I have a feeling they’re going to have to wait a little longer.

Prediction: Philadelphia in 7

World Series:

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Regular Season Series: Did not play

Runs scored per game: Advantage Tampa Bay (802-772)

Runs allowed per game: Advantage Philadelphia (640-649)

In a rematch of the 2008 World Series, I expect the Phillies’ offense to break out and destroy the Rays in the first two games. Charlie Manuel will then write Brian McCann a thank you letter for his bases clearing double to put the National League ahead in the 2010 All Star Game, which allowed the Senior Circuit to have home field advantage in the World Series for the first time since 2001.

The Rays will try to fight back, but the Phillies will win it at home…again. With a rotation like that, how could you not win the World Series? At least I can still chant 1975 at Flyers fans.

Prediction: Philadelphia in 6

Old Crow Medicine Show – Wagon Wheel