Week 16 picks: Luck sweepstakes going down to wire

By Jeff

There are a lot of bad teams in the NFL in need of a quarterback for the future. The Carolina Panthers have Jimmy Clausen, but he looks terrible. The Cincinnati Bengals have Carson Palmer, but he hasn't been above mediocre in recent years. The Buffalo Bills have Ryan Fitzpatrick, who resembles Tyler Thigpen from the 2008 season. And the Arizona Cardinals have... I have no clue anymore.

Yeah, Luck will bank some serious cash,
but he'll have to play for the Panthers or Bengals.

The Bengals and Panthers are looking like the front runners for April's No. 1 pick and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Bills shot themselves in the foot by rallying to beat the Bengals a few weeks ago and the Cardinals have the misfortune of playing in the NFC West.

So let's take those bottom feeder favorites and find out who gets the No. 1 pick. Right now, the Panthers (2-12) are a game up on the Bengals (3-11). The Bengals play the Chargers this week, which is a guaranteed loss, and the Panthers play the Pittsburgh Steelers, another guaranteed loss.

So it all comes down to Week 17.

The Bengals will play the Baltimore Ravens in the season finale. The Ravens will be fighting for the AFC North title and a first round bye, so they're probably going to beat the Bengals into submission. Granted, that isn't hard. Cincinnati has been giving up by the third quarter most of the season.

The Panthers travel to Atlanta in Week 17. Usually this would be a guaranteed win for Matty Ice and the Falcons. But the Falcons will wrap up the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win Monday night against the Saints. If they do that, they might rest their starters and give the Panthers a chance at 3-13.

Is the tension killing you yet?

And that's why it's nice to be a Steelers or a New England Patriots or a Indianapolis Colts fan. When the end of December rolls around, your team is fighting for a playoff spot or playoff positioning. Your fans aren't hoping you lose so you get a higher draft pick. Sometimes I think fans in these cities, and other successful ones are spoiled and forget this.

Oh well, time for Week 16. I went back to my losing ways with a 7-9 Week 15, dropping me to 100-117-6 for the season. Is it sad I was excited to break the century mark? Whatever. My miss of the week was picking Arizona to cover despite not knowing who their quarterback was.

The home teams are in caps.

PITTSBURGH (14.5) over Carolina: That's a lot of points to give an offense that has scored three offensive touchdowns in their past three games. But they're against the Panthers! And Clausen fighting for job security is not enough to carry the Panthers to within 17 points.

No wonder he got punched in the face.

Dallas (-6.5) over ARIZONA: Read a rumor that New England might try and pry Larry Fitzgerald away from Arizona in the offseason. ESPN stories from their Rumor Mill rarely come true, but just the thought of a Tom Brady-Fitzgerald connection has me terrified.

It's like watching "Paranormal Activity". During the movie, and when I was reading the story, I wasn't scared. I laughed both things off and thought nothing of them. Then the movie ended and I settled in for bed. That's when it hit me, and every sound my house made had me thinking a demon was creeping creeping around. Or a demon was working the phones in New England and acquiring more soldiers for his unholy army.

Detroit (+3.5) over MIAMI: The road losing streak is over! Let the road winning streak begin.

PHILADELPHIA (-14.5) over Minnesota: Does this line go up or down if Brett Favre is healthy enough to play?

"You want who to start? Me?
You know I'm Rex Grossman, right?"

JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Washington: I picked Washington to cover last week before I knew Rex Grossman was starting. It's not an excuse, as I had time to go back and change it. Secretly I was hoping Sexy Rexy would surprise the world and lead his team to at least cover. Have I mentioned I've been sleep deprived because I'm terrified of Fitzgerald somehow landing in New England?

ST. LOUIS (-2.5) over San Francisco: Why does Las Vegas do the .5? Wouldn't .1 serve the same purpose, or does that feel too much like "The Price is Right"?

TAMPA BAY (-6) over Seattle: I'm proud to boast I still haven't watched a Seahawks game this season.

New England (-8) over BUFFALO: The Patriots were taking it easy last week. With Matt Flynn at quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, Satan's Devil Dogs were playing relaxed. They might do it again this week, but they are still the top team in the AFC. And it really pains me to make that statement every week.

New York Jets (+1) over CHICAGO: It's nice when two quarterbacks you hate square off and both teams have punishing defenses.

Baltimore (-3.5) over CLEVELAND: The Ravens are playing for a conference crown. The Browns are playing for nothing. They haven't played for anything in several years. They probably won't play for anything significant for several more years.

KANSAS CITY (-5) over Tennessee: Can the Chiefs really hold off the Chargers for the AFC West title? I'm saying yes.

Happier times.

Indianapolis (-3) over OAKLAND: I have nothing witty or intelligent to say about this game. Peyton Manning is really good. Jason Campbell is not. Does that work?

Houston (-2.5) over DENVER: Remember when people were saying the Texans were finally ready to make the next step when they beat Indy in Week 1? Who knew you had to play good football for 16 games in the NFL? Well, 10 if you're San Diego.

GREEN BAY (-3) over New York Giants: Either the Giants continue the free fall that began in the fourth quarter of last week's implosion, or they use that as motivation and kill Aaron Rodgers.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over CINCINNATI: I'd take the Chargers to cover if they were favored by 21 points.

ATLANTA (-2.5) over New Orleans: Matty Ice doesn't lose at home.

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