Week 4 picks

I wish I could tell you I was too busy to make picks in the first three weeks of the NFL. I wasn't. But from this point on, every Thursday or Friday I will try and tell everyone who I think will win come Sunday and Monday. I don't do the spread. You shouldn't be betting on sporting events unless it's with your friends and the stakes are humiliating acts.

• St. Louis Rams, Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Bucs are all going to lose. The Bucs will have the best chance of winning against the Washington Redskins, but they won't.

• Baltimore Ravens 17, New England Patriots 10: This is one of the games where I wish there was no winner. The Ravens are going to be blitzing like crazy to try and get pressure on Tom Brady, and they're going to succeed. The New York Jets didn't sack Brady, but they were swarming all around him and he was flustered. It's going to happen again this week.

• Tennessee Titans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 13: The Titans stop the run, and they run well. Jags' QB David Garrard is going to have to beat the Titans and he doesn't have to the weapons to do it. Also expect Chris Johnson to rush for at least 100 yards and a score.

• Houston Texans 28, Oakland Raiders 17: The Texans appear to have no defense this year, especially against the run. Fortunately for them, they play the Raiders, who have no real offense. Darren McFadden will probably break a long run though to give the Raiders some offense.

• Indianapolis Colts 38, Seattle Seahawks 14: Seahawks' QB Matt Hasselbeck is out and Peyton Manning is still leading the Colts. Enough said.

• New York Giants 31, Kansas City Chiefs -3: The Bucs, although terrible, only managed 86 yards against the Giants last week. The Chiefs aren't going to do much better.

• Chicago Bears 24, Detroit Lions 7: Lions' RB Kevin Smith is probably out, so the Lions will need Matthew Stafford to carry them. That's not going to happen against a solid Bears defense. While seeing the Lions pain end last week was nice, expect a new streak to begin.

• Buffalo Bills 21, Miami Dolphins 17: Honestly, this might be the most boring game of the week unless you are a Bills or Dolphins fan. If Terrell Owens doesn't break out his slump this week, he is not going to do it this season, and those of you who took him as your first receiver in fantasy drafts (me) are going to be in a lot of trouble. Fortunately for the Bills, Chad Pennington is out and Chad Henne will be making his first career start. Don't expect a Mark Sanchez or Matt Ryan-like debut. He was behind Pennington for a reason.

• New Orleans Saints 27, New York Jets 14: The Jets have shut down some pretty good offenses this year, but this is the game where Sanchez makes some mistakes that lead to short fields for the Saints. Greg Williams has done some great work with the Saints defense this year. They have seven interceptions already. Combine the improved defense with the studliness (should be a word) of Drew Brees and you have a 4-0 Saints team after this week.

• Dallas Cowboys 17, Denver Broncos 9: I don't think Marion Barber plays at 100 percent, and Tony Romo is going to struggle to throw on Champ Bailey. Put those together and you have a low scoring affair here. With the Cowboys stuffing the run and forcing Kyle Orton to beat them, the Broncos won't score a touchdown.

• Pittsburgh Steelers 24, San Diego Chargers 20: The Steelers are going to wise up this week. Instead of giving up the go-ahead score with just seconds left, they're going to let the Chargers take the lead with 4 minutes left. This will allow Ben Roethlisberger to work his magic and lead the Steelers to a last minute win. If not, at least hockey season starts tomorrow.

• Minnesota Vikings 20, Green Bay Packers 14: The Packers have struggled pretty bad against the run the past two weeks. Cedric Benson tore them up for 141 yards, and Steven Jackson had 117 against them. Now they have to face Adrian Peterson. Expect the Vikings to control the clock and Keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Aren't you happy I didn't hype up Brett Favre facing the Packers for the first time since their messy divorce?

Long Live Rock - The Who