By: RJ
After the Phillies surprising exit from the postseason, it is time to move onto the offseason business at hand, namely Jayson Werth. Werth is in my estimation the third best free agent on the market behind Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. He is a right handed bat capable of hitting 30 homers, driving in 100 runs, scoring 100 runs, drawing 100 walks and stealing 20 bases (something he did not do enough of this year).
The Phillies have a lot of money committed for next year, something in the neighborhood of $140 million, but Werth is their only real right handed protection for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Super prospect Domonic Brown is ready to fill-in but he would add another left handed bat to the mix.
Add in that Werth recently hired super agent, Scott Boras and is looking for a Matt Holliday (7 yrs-$119 million) type deal and things do not look good. The Phillies have indicated they would like to bring Werth back and seem comfortable with a Jason Bay type contract (4 yrs-$66 million).
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. acts swifly and without hesitation. He makes a sound offer but if you do not show a willingness to want to take it, he will move on at the drop of a hat. This can be both a good and a bad thing. He offered Cliff Lee a three-year extension last winter, Lee hesistated. Amaro then pursued the Roy Halladay deal, signed him to an extension and boom, just like that Halladay was locked in as the Phillies ace for the next four years and Lee was on the west coast. He acted similar with the Phils third base hole. The Phillies offered Adrian Beltre and his agent, Boras a three-year, $24 million dollar deal, Beltre passed and Amaro moved on to sign Placido Polanco within the same week.
Werth has indicated he wants to stay but given the contract he is reportedly seeking, that seems almost impossible. I look for Amaro to make an offer early in the offseason for four years, with a fifth year option for around $70 million. Werth and Boras will pass, the Phillies will move onto to Plan B and will offer arbitration (remember all the offseason deadlines for filing and arb are moved up in an effort to give players more time to find work) and collect two picks when he signs with the Red Sox for 6 years at around $90 million.
I like Werth and think he is a very good complementary piece and he is about to be paid like the centerpiece of a franchise, something he is not and did not have to be in Philadelphia surrounded by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He will miss their presence around him in the lineup wherever his new home is.
Streets of Philadelphia-Bruce Springsteen
Pretty much agree with everything said. With Brown knocking on the door, I can't see Werth returning.
ReplyDeleteWerth is a solid player, but not a superstar that you build around. It's crazy that that type of player is worth $15 million in MLB. Salary cap, please.
Salary cap in MLB? Won't happen anytime soon. Selig will just point to the Rangers from this season and the Rays from three years ago as examples of low budget teams succeeding.
ReplyDeleteTrue, but I'll point to the Rays in 2011 after they can't afford to keep their core talent. A winner with a low salary cap can happen, but it's not sustainable. I don't think it will happen in the next CBA, but a guy can dream.
ReplyDeleteThey need to do something to fill the need for a RH bat. I am honestly ok with going with platoons in left and right like they did in 1993, Ibanez and Francisco in left and Brown and ? in right.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Jeff, but my counter argument to Selig is that if you had a cap, you would have a few more Rangers/Rays types since the cap would help to limit what the Yanks, Sox, Mets, Cubs and Phillies could do.
You two are forgetting how powerful the MLB players union is. If they don't want a cap, there won't be a cap.
ReplyDeleteThat is true. I love baseball but MLB is such a joke.
ReplyDeleteI don't watch a ton of Phillies games, and they could surely use some right handed power if Werth leaves, but I'd like to see them get a legit leadoff hitter. Rollins is about to turn 32 and he's struggled at the plate for the last two seasons. You don't have to just look at his recent struggles though. Rollins' career OBP is only .328, which is just above the league average. I think he'd be much more effective if you drop him down to the seven spot and get a real table setter for the top of the order.
Greg, you are right. A real table setter at the top would be ideal. Amaro has the tendency to work very well under the radar and based on his comments today he was not at all pleased with the lineup and seemed open to shaking things up a bit. In a perfect world, Rollins would hit 5th and someone else would hit leadoff.
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