AL Positional WAR All-Stars

by Mike Z

Hey guys, sorry for the long delay. Here's the AL list. I'll focus on the original guys that were placed on team, instead of analyzing the 90 other players that were added a replacements. All stats are through July 18th.

C - Alex Avila - 2.7 WAR
Reserve - Matt Wieters - 2.6 WAR
Reserve - Carlos Santana - 2.4 WAR

Actual - Alex Avila - 2.7 WAR
Reserve - Matt Wieters - 2.6 WAR
Reserve - Russell Martin 1.7 WAR

Avila has quietly come out of nowhere to help a Detroit offense that would arguable be a liability without him. At the halfway point, he already had more runs, RBI and HR than he did all last year. Granted, his BABIP is .350, but he is only 23 and will probably only get better. Wieters here is why I jokingly gave Jeff a hard time in the comments a couple posts back. He's really improving as a hitter, after really looking lost his first season. His K% dropped each year from 22.3%, to 18.7% to 15.5% this year and he's slugging .425, well above league average, and even more so compared to other catchers.


1B - Adrian Gonzalez - 4.5 WAR
Reserve - Miguel Cabrera - 3.3 WAR
Reserve - Mark Teixeira - 2.6 WAR

Actual - Adrian Gonzalez - 4.5 WAR
Reserve - Miguel Cabrera - 3.3 WAR
Reserve - Paul Konerko - 2.5 WAR

Yes, by using SABR, I was able to figure out that Adrian Gonzalez is good at baseball. For me, it's fun seeing WAR numbers for the people destroying the league because they just look absurd. That said, his WAR is only 3rd highest for his team, which is surprising and I'll get to in a little bit. He's quietly having a great season again, and his WAR would be higher if he knew how to use his glove. I'd have gone with Konerko over Teixeira in the actual game as well. For the 2nd half however, keep an eye on Teixeira because he's only hitting .239 due to his insanely unlucky .221 BABIP so he could start flat-out raking soon.



2B - Dustin Pedroia - 5.5 WAR
Reserve - Ben Zobrist - 4.8 WAR

Actual - Robinson Cano - 2.9 WAR
Reserve - Howie Kendrick - 4.0 WAR

This is the first position in this post series that wildly varies from actual vs. WAR. Does it surprise anyone that Pedroia has the 2nd highest WAR in all of baseball? After having the foot injury that hampered him last year and raised plenty of questions if he could hold up over a full season, he may be having a better season than his MVP year, and nobody is talking about it. Check out these lines:

Games HR R RBI SB BB%
2008 157 17 118 83 20 6.9%
2011 91 13 63 50 17 15.0%

He's on pace to crush these totals. In 2008, his total WAR was 6.8 so he's just on a tear right now. If Cano weren't voted on, Pedey is on this team easy. Zobrist is interesting too because his stats are more in line with his 2009 stats than his disappointing 2010 follow up. (He's also eligible as an OF)


SS - Asdrubal Cabrera - 3.5 WAR
Reserve - Jhonny Peralta - 3.3 WAR

Actual - Derek Jeter - 1.0 WAR
Reserve - Asdrubal Cabrera - 3.5 WAR

How awesome has Asdrubal been? He's playing an amazing SS and playing a huge part in turning around the Indians. I'm waiting to see him turn a double play by fielding a grounder while doing a cartwheel. His glove is sick. I don't need to say much about Jeter that hasn't been said. I'm fine with the lifetime achievement picks like this, but I'd like to see All-Star appearances stopped being used as a Hall of Fame gauge. Props to Peralta for hitting better than he ever has--he's earned his spot as a replacement. Honorable mention to Yunel Escobar being hundreths of a point below Jhonny.


3B - Alex Rodriguez - 4.1 WAR
Reserve - Kevin Youkilis - 3.4 WAR

Actual - Alex Rodriguez -4.1 WAR
Reserve - Adrian Beltre - 3.3 WAR

Statistically A-Rod is having his best season since his 30-100-100 of 2008. He's again playing great with the bat, and his war is somewhat inflated with a high UZR rating, which I feel is skewing things slightly. Not too much going on with this position to debate. Watch Beltre in the second half as he's getting unlucky with a low BABIP and a few other things, so he may experience a spike in production.

OF 1 - Jose Bautista - 6.9 WAR
OF 2 - Curtis Granderson - 4.7 WAR
OF 3 - Jacoby Ellsbury - 4.7 WAR
Reserve 1 - Brett Gardner - 3.7 WAR
Reserve 2 - Melky Cabrera - 3.1 WAR
Reserve 3 - Carlos Quentin - 2.7 WAR
Reserve 4 - Denard Span - 2.7 WAR

Actual 1 - Jose Bautista - 6.9 WAR
Actual 2 - Curtis Granderson - 4.7 WAR
Actual 3 - Josh Hamilton - 1.7 WAR
Reserve 1 - Jacoby Ellsbury - 4.7 WAR
Reserve 2 - Carlos Quentin - 2.7 WAR
Reserve 3 - Matt Joyce - 2.3 WAR
Reserve 4 - Michael Cuddyer - 2.2 WAR

This is a great example of where the criticism of WAR is best portrayed. 4 out of the 7 on the WAR team received a huge boost due to their defensive rating. WAR has been determined to be one of the best ways to compare overall worth of players, but be sure to keep this list in mind when looking at WAR. That said, Bautista is making a mockery of the league again. 6.9 WAR is just insane. There will only be a handful of players that will break 7 WAR by the end of the entire season. Just another example of how ridiculous he's performing.


DH - David Ortiz - 2.5 WAR
Reserve - Michael Young 2.0 WAR

Actual - David Ortiz - 2.5 WAR
Reserve - Michael Young 2.0 WAR

No surprises here. I'm still slightly amazed how it looked like in 2009 that Ortiz just lost his hitting ability for half a season, then all of a sudden put it back together like nothing happened. Good for Michael Young keeping things together after "losing his position" in the off-season. Granted, there was a good bit of whining on his part and was asking for a trade, but he's put a nice season together. If Travis Hafner didn't get hurt, he would've most likely been the reserve.

Just one more post on the AL pitchers and you don't have to look at WAR again for another year.

NL Pitching WAR All Stars

by Mike Z

Similar to position players, WAR still attempts to determine overall value of pitchers. Again, I'm not saying that these are the players that should have been on the team or that the teams should be picked based on WAR. I'm doing this as a different way to evaluate players and to generate some thought and discussion. All stats include up to the end of games July 4th via Fangraphs.

SP 1 - Roy Halladay - 4.7 WAR

SP 2 - Cole Hamels - 3.8 WAR

SP 3 - Clayton Kershaw - 3.6 WAR

SP 4 - Cliff Lee - 3.5 WAR

SP 5 - Daniel Hudson - 3.2 WAR

SP 6 - Tim Lincecum - 3.2 WAR

SP 7 - Jordan Zimmermann - 3.0 WAR

SP 8 - Madison Bumgarner - 2.9 WAR

Actuals

SP 1 - Roy Halladay - 4.7 WAR

SP 2 - Cole Hamels - 3.8 WAR

SP 3 - Clayton Kershaw - 3.6 WAR

SP 4 - Cliff Lee - 3.2 WAR

SP 5 - Tim Lincecum - 3.2 WAR

SP 6 - Matt Cain - 2.6 WAR

SP 7 - Jair Jurrjens - 2.2 WAR

SP 8 - Ryan Vogelsong - 1.4 WAR

Is it really that surprising that the 3 of the top 4 are Philles, with Halladay just crushing everybody? He's 0.4 WAR ahead of CC for leauge lead, and on pace for the best season, according to WAR, of his career. His strikeout rate is at his highest at 8.65 K/9 and his walk rate is at 1.12 BB/9, which is only 0.04 higher than his career best. His xFIP is essentially identical to his ERA (2.41 v.s 2.44) so his ERA is right in line, and his BABIP is .302 as well, so nothing he's doing can not really be attributed to any "luck". The man isn't human, that's all there is to it.

The last couple on the list is a big reason why I find WAR and other SABR stuff so interesting. After Daniel Hudson went to Arizona after being traded from the White Sox, he was lights out, but his numbers superficially make it look like he's dropped off after his breakout. His ERA this season is an uninspiring 3.75 this year. In his first 4 starts, he gave up 17 runs and walked 12 batters in 4 games. But since then, he's been fantastic, he's had a 2.6 ERA since then. Overall, his xFIP of 3.45 indicates he's pitching better than his numbers indicate. His walk rate has dropped from 2.55 BB/9 last year to 2.03 BB/9 this year. You could make a great case for his inclusion.

Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting case because he's been performing like an ace this year with a 2.62 ERA and with a 76/24 K/BB ratio. However, his xFIP is 3.68, indicating some luck. His BABIP is a low .281 and his HR/FB% is a ridiculously tiny 2.9%. That HR rate just has to jump soon, as league average normalizes around 11% every single year.

Now onto the debacle. Ryan Vogelsong is a cool story, pitching lights out after working his way back from pitching in Japan after being absolutely awful with SF and Pittsburgh before that. That said, he has no reason to be near this team. His BABIP is only .256 so he's due for some regression. With the luck he's getting with a skewed BABIP, high left on base percentage, low HR/FB rate and low ground ball percentage, he's bound to come back to earth. All of that goes into his current xFIP of 3.62, about 1.5 higher than his ERA. Plus, he's had at least 5 fewer starts than any other starter (he doesn't have enough starts yet to qualify for statistics yet). Other pitchers that have a WAR of 1.4: Ryan Dempster, Charlie Morton, Paul Maholm, Chris Narveson. There were plenty of better picks than Bochy taking one of his own.

Relief 1 - Craig Kimbrel - 1.9 WAR

Relief 2 - John Axford - 1.3 WAR

Relief 3 - Jonny Venters - 1.3 WAR

Relief 4 - Sean Marshall - 1.3 WAR

Relief 5 - Joel Hanrahan - 1.2 WAR

Actual

Relief 1 - Jonny Venters - 1.3 WAR

Relief 2 - Joel Hanrahan - 1.2 WAR

Relief 3 - Heath Bell - 0.8 WAR

Relief 4 - Tyler Clippard - 0.6 WAR

Relief 5 - Brian Wilson - 0.6 WAR

Because the sample sizes for these guys are so small (52 innings pitched is the high), it's tough to use WAR to compare them. All this really shows is that the save stat is usually overvalued. Craig Kimbrel, Heath Bell and Joel Hanrahan are tied for the league lead with 25 saves, and there's there's a sizable gap between the three. Kimbrel's big lead is driven by his 67 strikeouts, tops for all relievers. There are some guys with some nice seasons like Carlos Marmol or Mike Adams that you could add instead of Clippard or Wilson, but there isn't too much to argue about. It is interesting though that WAR agrees with most analysts that Hanranan and Kimbrel have possibly been the top 2 closers this season.

I'll be out of town for the next few days, so it might be a while, but I'll definitely be back to do WAR for the AL all stars as well. Until then, you can use the time to try and figure out a reason Vogelsong deserves to be on the team. Enjoy.

NL Positional WAR All Stars

by Mike Z

That's right, I'm back to use SABR to pick the all star teams. As a refresher, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is an all-encompassing calculation to determine a player's overall worth, in comparison to a player called up from AAA to fill in. The calculations for WAR vary slightly depending on the website you use, so I'll be using the numbers from Fangraphs throughout. All stats are through the beginning of July 3.


C - Brian McCann 3.1 WAR

Reserve - Miguel Montero 2.3 WAR

Actual - Brian McCann 3.1 WAR
Reserve - Yadier Molina 1.4 WAR

Brian McCann has been an absolute animal this year, and deserves the start here. He's blowing everyone away due to his great offensive numbers, as well as leading all catchers in hits, HR, OBP, and RBI. Montero of the Diamondbacks got a huge WAR boost due to some very good offensive numbers, as probably the 2nd best hitting catcher in the NL this year. Because "This game counts~Bud Selig", Molina is a great choice due to his stellar defense, which is really driving up his WAR. No real snubs here at all.


1B - Prince Fielder 3.6 WAR
Reserve - Joey Votto 3.6 WAR
Reserve - Gaby Sanchez 2.5 WAR

Actual 1B - Prince Fielder 3.6 WAR
Reserve - Joey Votto 3.6 WAR
Reserve - Gaby Sanchez 2.5 WAR

WAR lines up perfectly with the actuals here. Picking your starter here comes down to whether you prefer a masher or an on base machine with great defense. Fielder is in the top 5 in baseball slugging, HR, and RBI. Votto has been "slumping" recently and is hitting .317 now and has been on base in all but 5 games this year. He's not slugging nearly as much as Fielder, but has one of the best gloves at 1B in the league. Gaby Sanchez may be surprising here, but he looks like he'll become a big time slugger real soon, if not already, and can field his position well. He's the only Marlins rep, but he does deserve the spot. He beat out Helton and Pujols by 0.1 WAR.


2B - Rickie Weeks 3.3 WAR
Reserve - Danny Espinosa 3.1 WAR

Actual - Rickie Weeks 3.3 WAR
Reserve - Brandon Phillips 2.8 WAR

Those are some high WAR numbers thanks to defense for all three of them. Weeks is having a repeat of his great season of last year, and is more than deserving. (Sidenote - His brother Jemile looks like he's going to be even better) Espinosa is pretty surprising here, but is getting propped up due to his .466 SLG even though he's only hitting .243 overall. Phillips is having another great season, being on pace for career highs for all major categories except steals. I would've gone with him as my reserve as well.


SS - Jose Reyes 5.3 WAR
Reserve - Troy Tulowitzki 3.5 WAR
Reserve - Stephen Drew 2.1 WAR

Actual - Jose Reyes 5.3 WAR
Reserve - Troy Tulowitzki 3.5 WAR
Reserve - Starlin Castro 1.6 WAR



Yeah that Reyes WAR isn't a typo. He's 0.3 behind Bautista for the league lead. He's been that good. You could make a great case for him being the MVP of the first half. Hitting .354 with already having 65 runs and 30 steals is real impressive. The man is going to get paid this offseason. And if the Mets decide to trade him even though he's almost gotten them back to .500, he could bring back a massive haul for all their holes. Or maybe a lot of money to help pay for Bobby Bonilla's buyout for the next 25 years. I have no idea why they need 3 SS, but they need to get a Cub on the roster somehow. I would've gone with Darwin Barney, just because I think his name is awesome.


3B - Ryan Roberts 2.1 WAR
Reserve -Chase Headley 2.0 WAR

Actual - Placido Polanco 1.8 WAR
Reserve - Chipper Jones 0.8 WAR

.......and Polanco wins by default! He's actually done a nice job for the Phillies, but the hot corner has been a whole lot of suck this year in the NL. Chipper's WAR puts him in elite company this year as Chris Getz and Miguel Olivo. Heath Bell is the Padres rep so there's no way they would get 2 and Ryan Roberts is such a generic name that everybody forgot about him.


OF - Andrew McCutchen 4.6 WAR
OF - Matt Kemp 4.5 WAR
OF - Shane Victorino 4.0 WAR
Reserve - Ryan Braun 4.0 WAR
Reserve - Michael Bourn 3.4 WAR
Reserve - Justin Upton 3.3 WAR
Reserve - Matt Holliday 3.2 WAR
Reserve - Carlos Beltran 2.7 WAR

Actual - Matt Kemp 4.5 WAR
Actual - Ryan Braun 4.0 WAR
Actual - Lance Berkman 2.6 WAR
Reserve - Justin Upton 3.3 WAR
Reserve - Matt Holliday 3.2 WAR
Reserve - Carlos Beltran 2.7 WAR
Reserve - Hunter Pence 2.2 WAR
Reserve - Jay Bruce 1.5 WAR

OK who's ready for a rant? Hunter Pence? OK fine I get it, everybody needs a rep (because this is still 4th grade-why not give everybody a plastic trophy for participating?), regardless of how bad they are. But Cincy already has a few, so please explain why Jay Bruce is there for any other reason than the celebrity softball game beforehand? Why would it matter that he has 18 HR when he misses the ball every other time (K% of 26.1)? Plus, he'd still have trouble fielding his position with one of those giant gloves that the mascots use. Not only is McCutchen leading all NL outfielders in WAR, he's 3rd in ALL OF BASEBALL. How he isn't even on that dumb vote for the last player on the team is beyond me. (Michael Morse? REALLLLLY?)

Up next: NL Pitchers

Francisco Liriano's Deceptive 1st Half

by Mike

As promised, here's my take of Franciso Liriano's season thus far. If you had to pick the best/most valuable pitcher in the AL off the top of your head, who would you pick and how far down the list would you place Liriano? The only pitchers with a higher WAR this season are Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson. However, here's a rundown of Liriano's stats from this season:

6-7, 107.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 117 K, 30 BB, 2 HR

Some of those numbers are great, others are just OK. But why do sabermetrics show Liriano as the most valuable pitcher in the AL? WAR isn't just the only advanced statistic that looks great for him, either. Fielding Independent Pitching is a metric used to quantify a pitcher's ability by removing all luck and factors outside his ability, as the name suggests. His FIP is 2.18, meaning his peripherals suggest his ERA to this point should be 2.18, and his xFIP predicts his ERA should be around 2.97 the rest of the year. I'm going to break down some of these peripherals, which should (hopefully) naturally lead into figuring out what the heck is going on.

Looking at his record, his pitching performances in his game log more or less reflect that record, if being a tad unlucky in deserving another win, maybe 2. He has 3 losses where he only gave up 3ER, but the other 4 involved him getting shelled. In 2 of the last 3 he was rocked, with his last start being 1.2 IP and 7ER. I'm not saying his last start should be ignored, but for perspective, if you do take out that last start, his ERA drops to 3.29, further indicating he's been pitching great.

So if we do assume this, why in my last post did I say he's tough to read, as he's been lucky and unlucky all at once? First, his WHIP is surprisingly high for a guy who doesn't have all that many walks so far. Where he's getting unlucky is with a .361 BABIP. That number throws off his WHIP by itself. Here's some quick pencil and paper math: for argument's sake, if you regress his BABIP to league average to .300 (slightly rounded up), proportionally, he's given up 18 more hits than he should have. Subtracting out the 18 hits, his WHIP drops from 1.28 to 1.13, which would tie with Tim Hudson him for 15th in WHIP, and tie with John Danks in AL only for 7th.

Finally his K/9 rate is great at 9.83. This ratio hasn't been this good for him since his 10.71 in his rookie year in 2006, right before he had Tommy John surgery. With the league average of 7.02 K/9, he's really cleaning up here. Ks are a big predictor in FIP, so he's getting a big boost from this alone.

Now after going through all that, it's a little more obvious why his WAR is so high. However, I did say I felt he is getting very lucky in some places. The one that really jumps out is allowing only 2 HR, which were in the same game in Boston on May 20th. His HR/FB% (Home Run/Fly Ball) is a paltry 2.6% right now. The league average is around 9-11% and normalizes around 10.6%.

There are a bunch of studies about how pitchers can control their FB% (skill) but have almost no control over their HR/FB% (luck). Target field's yielded the second fewest home runs in the league, so it's definitely a pitcher's park, but 2.6% is unsustainable. It won't happen all at once, but I'd expect that number to creep up over 7% by the end of the year, even if he continues to pitch very well in the 2nd half.

After going through these numbers, I was actually surprised for them to come out this favorably to Liriano. Going into this, I anticipated the numbers to indicate that he would trail off, but I'm beginning to think more and more that he could sustain his level of pitching in the standard pitching categories for the rest of the season. Fangraphs indicates his slider is back to being dominant again, saving him 14.9 runs this season, which hasn't been this high since his breakout 2006 season. Also his percentage of batters swinging and missing is 12%, which is a huge number---as a reference, the league average is 8.4%.

His stuff may be back and could be in for a nice run, assuming his last start was only a hiccup and not a sign of things to come. He may not have the numbers or record at the end of the year to be in the discussion for any of the end of the season awards, but don't be completely shocked if a couple analysts start mentioning his name come the end of August.


The Friendly Indians - I Know You Know (Psych theme-season premier tonight!)

AL Pitching WAR All Stars

by Mike

Here's the fourth and final part of my WAR series.

Starters

Francisco Liriano 4.3 WAR
Cliff Lee 4.0 WAR
Jon Lester 3.5 WAR
Jered Weaver 3.2 WAR
Felix Hernandez 3.2 WAR
Justin Verlander 2.9 WAR
John Danks 2.7 WAR
Ricky Romero 2.7 WAR
Zack Greinke. 2.6 WAR

(Actuals)
Cliff Lee 4.0 WAR
Jon Lester 3.5 WAR
Jered Weaver 3.2 WAR (Replacement for CC Sabathia)
David Price 2.3 WAR
Clay Buchholz 2.2 WAR (Injured)
CC Sabathia 2.2 WAR (Ineligible to pitch)
Andy Pettitte 2.0 WAR (Replacement for Buchholz)
Phil Hughes 1.7 WAR
Fausto Carmona 1.5 WAR
Trevor Cahill 1.1 WAR

Anybody else feel like it's a bad sign when only 3 pitchers are on both lists, 2 if you exclude Weaver being a replacement? I would have no problem if everybody after CC and down (minus Pettitte) was taken off the team. Sure CC is having a pretty good season, but Joe Girardi picked his guy over Jered Weaver, and subsequently got blasted for it. Sure, CC has some gaudy win numbers, but with that offense, that's going to happen. Weaver is out performing him in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, with his 130 strikeouts being tops in the league. That's a pretty strong case to leave off your own guy for somebody much more deserving.

While that snub is pretty bad, the real story here is Felix Hernandez, and to a lesser extent, Francisco Liriano (I'll probably do a post analyzing Liriano's stats later because there's some interesting stuff there. His peripherals indicate he's getting lucky and unlucky all at once. He's probably a border line all star that could either light it up or get shelled in the 2nd half.) I'll save this for another post, but one of my biggest pet peeves is the over-valuing of the win-loss stat in baseball. Roy Oswalt is leading the league in losses with 10. He's 6-10, but has an 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP (7th in the league). Does that record mean he sucks? Or does Halladay's 10-7 record mean he's mediocre to above-average?
/end rant

Felix has a record of 6-5, but he's another player out-pitching his record. He's in the top 10 in ERA and WHIP. He's tops in innings pitched (128.2!) and 2nd in CG (3). He's also 2nd in strikeouts with 122. He's had 7 starts where he's given up 2 ER or less where he either got a loss or a no decision. If e gets a couple of those to be wins, he's on this team easy. With the new rule this year where pitchers can opt out of the game if they start a game this Sunday, they can be replaced with another pitcher. Jered Weaver was added this way, and he's scheduled to pitch on Sunday, so I wouldn't be surprised if he takes Weaver's spot.

I feel Pettitte, Hughes (2 more Yankees, and a Yankee manager for the team? Nah must be a coincidence.....), Carmona, and Cahill shouldn't be on this team, especially the last two. There's 2 more examples of why every team getting a player sucks. They really should've placed Shin Shoo-Choo as Cleveland's rep and Cahill is having a nice season, but there are more deserving, none of which who play for Oakland. The Pettitte addition got under my skin a little because Girardi cheated the system a tad. He wanted Pettite all along, but knew Sabathia would be able to be replaced due to the new rule. He added Sabathia, knowing he would then be taken off, and could add Pettitte, effectively giving his staff and extra all-star berth. Buchholz was put on the DL before Sunday, so Girardi just made the move then. Color me irked. I'm generally a fan of Girardi, but he's been a slut baby with some of these all star selections.

Reliever/Closers

Matt Thornton 1.6 WAR
Mariano Rivera 1.2 WAR
Rafael Soriano 0.9 WAR
Joakim Soria 0.9 WAR
Jose Valverde 0.7 WAR

(Actual)
Matt Thornton 1.6 WAR
Mariano Rivera 1.2 WAR (Injured)
Neftali Feliz 1.1 WAR
Rafael Soriano 0.9 WAR (Replacement)
Joakim Soria 0.9 WAR
Jose Valverde 0.7 WAR


Since there was only one middle reliever, I added him to the closers list. Mainly, because everybody in baseball, minus Bobby Jenks and Ozzie Guillen, want Thornton to be the closer. After Thornton and Rivera, the rest are closers, so I listed all closers, otherwise, the next 3 guys in WAR are all middle relievers (Frank Francisco, JJ Putz, Darren Oliver). Actually, of the 13 pitchers between Rivera and Valverde, 10 are middle relievers. They are all bunched together so it doesn't make a huge difference either way.

Now that everyone's sick of looking at my numbers for the week, I'll graciously take my exit and let your brains recover for a few days. Thanks for suffering through 4 of these and humoring my research. It was a blast. If anything, at least I hope you enjoyed the pictures.


Syd - On A Friday

AL Positional WAR All Stars

by Mike

We're switching to the Junior Circuit now, where we have a few WAR monsters leading their positions.


C-Joe Mauer - 2.2 WAR
Mike Napoli - 1.9 WAR

Actual - Joe Mauer 2.2 WAR
Victor Martinez 1.9 WAR (Injured)
John Buck 1.4 WAR (Replacement)

We all know Mauer is the top AL catcher so there's little to say here other than he lost a bit of his power like David Wright circa 2009. He only has 4 HR this after hitting 28 HR last year. Minor upset here in putting John Buck on the team instead of Napoli. Since Jeff Mathis came back off the DL last month, Mike Scioscia has moved Napoli to 1B to keep his bat in the lineup, so it's tough to put Napoli on the team as a catcher. Buck's numbers are pretty good a catcher, with a line of .269, 13 HR, and 40 RBI. The only other people above him are Martinez and Jorge Posada (1.5 WAR). So he isn't a bad replacement, even though the rest of the league is kinda underwhelming so far.

INF - Ty Wiggington 0.4 WAR

WAR All Star - Anybody else

I'm pretty sure Marks would be more deserving that Wiggy for a spot. This is what happens when every team gets a player. His glove has cost them 8.3 runs, the worst in baseball by a margin of 2.6! For the Orioles, couldn't they just have Luke Scott and call it a day? Ben Zobrist can play multiple positions, and so can Jose Bautista and they're above AAA caliber, let alone a legit all star choice. I don't want to type about this anymore, it's making me angry.

1B -Justin Morneau 5.0 WAR
Miguel Cabrera 3.6 WAR

Actual - Justin Morneau 5.0 WAR
Miguel Cabrera - 3.6 WAR

Morneau is the leading WAR guy in baseball up to this point. Just look at these stats: hitting .345, 56 RBI, 50 BB, .618 slugging, 18 HR, 53 R, .437 OBP, 1.055 OPS. That's just insane. His glove has saved 8.0 runs this year, with the 2nd highest being Kendry Morales as 3.1 runs saved. Morneau is sure to trail off a little due to his .385 BABIP, further indicated by his LD% up 3.2% from his career average. All that suggests he won't trail off all that much, barring an extended hitting slump. Cabrera's WAR took a big hit because his glove has cost the Tigers 4.9 runs this year, 2nd worst in baseball.


2B Robinson Cano 4.3 WAR
Dustin Pedroia 3.4 WAR (Injured)
Ian Kinsler 2.3 WAR (Replacement)

Actual - Robinson Cano 4.3 WAR
Dustin Pedroia 3.4 WAR (Injured)
Ian Kinsler 2.3 WAR (Replacement)

Anybody remember when 2B was all glove? It might be after the top 5 or so in the AL, but these 3 are raking. Cano has been unbelievable so far, tied for 2nd highest WAR in baseball, behind Morneau. He's in the top 10 in average, runs, slugging, HR, OBP, and OPS. He's added an absurd 23.5 runs to the Yankees offense this year. 2nd is Pedroia, who also is having a fantastic offensive season after a few week slump at the beginning of the year. Even then, Pedroia is STILL 8.1 runs benind Cano.

SS - Alex Gonzalez 2.2 WAR
Derek Jeter 2.0 WAR

Actual - Derek Jeter 2.0 WAR
Elvis Andrus 1.9 WAR

No real breakaway players here, with 6 guys separated by 0.6 WAR. I wouldn't have minded Gonzalez and Andrus here, but I know that would never happen. It doesn't matter if Jeter ever hits poorly or punched a baby or anything like that, he'll be voted to be the starting SS for probably the rest of his career. I don't have a huge problem with Andrus over Gonzales, because I feel he's just as deserving for this spot. Andrus has done a great job with stepping in for Michael Young and is a pretty big part of the Rangers. With 16 HR as a shortstop though, it is a tad surprising Gonzalez isn't on the team. He's also on pace for career highs in R and RBI. Not a bad argument here either way (although I'm pretty sure who the blog overlord is leaning toward here).


3B - Evan Longoria 3.5 WAR
Adrian Beltre 3.5 WAR
Michael Young 2.3 WAR

Actual - Evan Longoria 3.5 WAR
Adrian Beltre 3.5 WAR
Alex Rodriguez 2.2 WAR

Longoria and Beltre are well ahead of everybody else and they're already talked about in length, so I'll pass here. I finally have something to critique her with A-Rod making the team. It would've been great to have Young make the team, but there was no way Joe Girardi was not going to pass on his own player. Young is hitting .306, 12 HR, 53 R, and 56 RBI. Rodriguez is hitting .273, 14 HR, 43 R, and 67 RBI. Not a huge difference, I know but it's more of a personal preference here; I just feel Young is more deserving this year. If they wanted to cheat the system, they could've added Youkilis as their 3B (even though he has 3 games there this year) but there's no way Girardi would've taken a Sox over a Yank.


DH - Vladimir Guererro 2.5 WAR
David Ortiz 1.8 WAR

Actual - Vladimir Guererro 2.5 WAR
David Ortiz 1.8 WAR

Vlad is another great story this year. I though his career was basically done after last year. I would just get sad seeing him attempting to run the bases. I was waiting for both knees to buckle and he'd never be able to walk again. Now, he's hitting .330, with 19 HR, 54 R, and an impressive RBI. Ortiz was an easy pick here too. Nobody else really challenged for the second spot.


OF -Carl Crawford 4.3 WAR
Josh Hamilton 4.1 WAR
Alex Rios 3.0 WAR
Torii Hunter 2.9 WAR
Ichiro Suzuki 2.9 WAR
Ben Zobrist 2.9 WAR

Actual - Carl Crawford 4.3 WAR
Josh Hamilton 4.1 WAR
Torii Hunter 2.9 WAR
Ichiro Suzuki 2.9 WAR
Vernon Wells 2.4 WAR
Jose Bautista 2.2 WAR

Crawford's WAR is tied with Cano for 2nd in baseball. He tops Hamilton in WAR due to saving 15.2 runs this year with his glove, tops among OF and 4.8 above 2nd place Ichiro. Hamilton is up there due to adding a sick 28.6 runs of offense. Rios has a legitimate gripe about not making the team. He's been a solid hitter all year, and he also has 22 SB, so he'd be a good piece to have on this team. He could have easily made it over either of his former Toronto teammates. Especially Bautista, because if he's not hitting home runs, he's worthless. He's good at playing bad defense at multiple positions, which is nice, I guess. He's had 9 RBI since the start of June and hitting a robust .238. Yuck.

Ok that's all I got. Not all too much to complain about here, at least for position players. Don't worry, I'm going to have a field day with the pitching roster.


Joseph Arthur - In The Sun

NL Pitching WAR All Stars

With the pitchers, it's the same concept as hitters when using WAR. Again, it works as all encompassing stat, with starters getting a slightly bigger bonus than relievers. Instead of ERA, the WAR formula uses FIP (fielding independent pitching), which eliminates all factors that the pitcher cannon control. Again, I'm not implying that the all star team should be based on WAR alone; I'm just using this as an example of another way to evaluate a player, and assessing the validity of the stat. I'll break everything down going from starters, to middle relievers, to closers.


Roy Halladay 4.1 WAR
Josh Johnson 4.0 WAR
Ubaldo Jimenez 3.3 WAR
Adam Wainwright 3.1 WAR
Yovani Gallardo 2.9 WAR
Tim Lincecum 2.9 WAR
Clayton Kershaw 2.3 WAR
Randy Wells 2.3 WAR

(Actuals)

Roy Halladay 4.1 WAR
Josh Johnson 4.0 WAR
Ubaldo Jimenez 3.3 WAR
Adam Wainwright 3.1 WAR
Yovani Gallardo 2.9 WAR
Tim Lincecum 2.9 WAR
Chris Carpenter 1.5 WAR
Tim Hudson 1.5 WAR

(NOTE: Sorry for using the Blue Jays picture, but it was too good to pass up) How good are Halladay and Johnson? There will be a lot of great players in the league this year that won't hit the 4.0 WAR mark by the end of the year. Halladay is only 10-7, due to no fault of his own, and WAR doesn't penalize him for that. He's already pitched 7 complete games, an ERA of 2.33, with 3 shutouts, including a perfect game. His BB/9 (walks per 9 innings) is the second lowest of his career at 1.17 (league average is 3.38) and all his batted ball info is in line with his career numbers, suggesting we shouldn't see a regression in any direction. Meaning, he's pitching lights out thanks to his crazy precision and not due to any more luck than the average pitcher.

I don't think there are many casual baseball fans that would've guessed Josh Johnson has been every bit as good as Halladay this year. He's 10-3 with an absurd 1.82 ERA. In his matchup against Halladay that he threw his perfect game, he only gave up one unearned run. In his past 10 starts, he's given up a total of just 7 runs. His "worst" game in that span was giving up 2 runs in 8 innings with 9 strikeouts and 1 walk. All of his batted ball peripherals are identical to his career averages as well, so the Cy Young race should be awesome the second half of the year.

Ubaldo is a distant 3rd here mostly because of his high walk rate. He's already walked 44 batters, with Johnson 27 and Halladay just 18. Ubaldo has the crazy 14-1 record and 2.27 ERA but for being a great strikeout pitcher, his K/9 rate is a full strikeout lower than Johnson. If you've watched any of his starts, his stuff is just incredible and a lot of fun to watch, but all these peripherals show signs that he could regress pretty quickly. His LD% percentage is down to 14.1%, 3.5 points lower than his career number, and his BABIP is a .254, suggesting he's getting pretty lucky so far. All his peripherals are extremely similar to last year's numbers, so we'll see how much longer he can last.

Did Randy Wells on this list surprise anybody? Before this past Saturday, he went 11 starts in a row without a win. He's really looked awful for the most part, but his .345 BABIP suggests he's pretty unlucky so far. His FIP is 0.5 lower than last year when he went 12-10 and an ERA of 3.05, so he's basically similarly to how he did last year, but 6% are line drives this year that were ground balls last year. He could be someone to watch and see if his results eventually match his peripherals.

Personally, I think they nailed all the pitchers, although with San Diego having the lowest staff ERA in the majors, I would've like to see them get somebody. I'll assume they will once pitchers start pulling out of the game over the weekend.

Matt Belisle 1.4 WAR
Luke Gregerson 1.2 WAR

(Actual)
Evan Meek 1.0 WAR
Arthur Rhodes 0.9 WAR

I won't go into much here, because the sample size for relievers is so far, it's very difficult to quantify their results when they've only pitched 35-45 innings this year. Meek's stuff is not that of a normal middle reliever and he's pitching lights out, so this is a very deserving selection (although I fee McCutchen would've been more likely to make an impact during the game) Rhodes is a cool story because he's 40 making his 1st all star game and is a big part in keeping the Reds atop the NL Central. He's the only lefty on the roster so he should see some time.

Jonathan Broxton 1.7 WAR
Carlos Marmol 1.6 WAR
Heath Bell 1.4 WAR

(Actual)
Jonathan Broxton 1.7 WAR
Brian Wilson 1.4 WAR
Matt Capps 0.6 WAR

Really Matt Capps? Sure he has 22 saves, but his WHIP is 1.41, which is awful for a closer. The saves were over-valued here (like they always are), and they should've sent a position player from Washington for the game (Willingham, Zimmerman anyone?) This would've been an easy place to get one of the great arms in San Diego on the team.

That's all I got. I'll be back with the AL position players in a day or two.


The Spill Canvas - All Over You

NL Positional WAR All Stars

With the MLB all star teams just announced, I decided to pick who should be on the teams based on their WAR (Wins Above Replacement). WAR is an statistic that combines offense, defense, baserunning, and adjustments for positional difficulty to determine how many wins in a season the player contributes to the team. Using WAR, these are the players that have the highest WAR for each position. All calculations are using stats as of July 4.

C - Miguel Olivo 3.0 WAR
Reserve - Brian McCann 2.5 WAR

Actual - Yadier Molina 0.6 WAR
Reserve - Brian McCann 2.5 WAR

Olivo has the highest WAR of any catcher this season. He's tops here mainly to his great offensive season. He's tops for catchers in RBI, runs, home runs, and OPS. He's actually playing the best defense of any catcher as well, slightly ahead of McCann. McCann is having a fantastic offensive season as well, being in the top 5 for catcher in RBI, runs, home runs, doubles, and OPS. He would've been my pick to start the game. Molina's WAR is the lowest in the NL for catchers because his offense has been a black hole and he frankly should be nowhere near this team.


1B - Joey Votto 3.6 WAR
Reserve - Albert Pujols 3.1 WAR
Reserve - Adrian Gonzales 2.9 WAR

Actual - Albert Pujols 3.1 WAR
Reserve - Adrian Gonzalez 2.9 WAR
Reserve - Ryan Howard 1.3 WAR

I don't think I could ever argue that Pujols shouldn't start because he's is an absolute freak, but how does Votto not even make the team at all? This is all different types of awful. Ok here's all the categories that he's in the top 5 for in the NL: batting average - 5th, RBI - 5th, walks - 5th, runs - 4th, slugging -3rd, on base percentage - 3rd, home runs -2nd, OPS - 1st (He also leads the league in OPS). For not adding Votto to the team, Charlie Manuel should get punched in the face until he no longer looks like a person. Ryan Howard is 8th in WAR in the NL, tied with Garrett Jones. He shouldn't be on this team either.


2B - Chase Utley 3.3 WAR (injured)
Replacement - Martin Prado 3.1 WAR
Reserve - Brandon Phillips 3.0 WAR

Actual - Chase Utley 3.3 WAR (injured)
Replacement - Martin Prado 3.1 WAR
Reserve - Brandon Phillips 3.0 WAR

Not much to say here, as everything matches up. Phillips was 0.5 WAR higher than the next closest, Dan Uggla, who pretends to play defense, so this position is fine.


SS -Rafael Furcal 2.8 WAR
Reserve - Troy Tulowitzki 2.6 WAR (injured)
Replacement - Hanley Ramirez 2.6 WAR

Starter - Hanley Ramirez 2.6 WAR
Reserve - Troy Tulowitzki 2.6 WAR (injured)
Replacement - Jose Reyes 1.8 WAR

It's a shame Furcal was left off the roster, but my guess would be that it's due to him only playing 51 games so far, missing most of May. He's hitting .338 and statistically he has played the best defense of any NL SS, saving 4.8 runs this year. Hanley's defense cost the Marlins 6.1 runs this year, almost 3 times worse than the second worst in the NL. Yuck.


3B - David Wright 3.9 WAR
Reserve 1 - Scott Rolen 3.0 WAR

Actual - David Wright 3.9 WAR
Reserve 1 - Scott Rolen 3.0 WAR

Looks like this position was correct as well, although Ryan Zimmerman also has a 3.0 WAR, and barely edged by Rolen. Wright has been fantastic at the plate, and already having 4 more home runs this year than the 10 he hit last year. He's earned this start, and Rolen is a nice story, leading the NL slugging .577, over 70 points above his career average.

OF1 - Matt Holliday 3.5 WAR
OF2- Marlon Byrd 3.2 WAR
OF3 - Josh Willingham 3.1 WAR
Reserve 1 - Andres Torres 3.0 WAR
Reserve 2 - Aubrey Huff 2.6 WAR
Reserve 3 - Angel Pagan 2.4 WAR
Reserve 4 - Alfonso Soriano 2.4 WAR
Reserve 5 - Andrew McCutchen 2.4 WAR

OF1 - Ryan Braun 1.1 WAR
OF2- Jason Heyward 2.0 WAR
OF3 - Andre Ethier 1.1 WAR
Reserve 1 - Matt Holliday 3.5 WAR
Reserve 2 - Marlon Byrd 3.2 WAR
Reserve 3 - Chris Young 2.3 WAR
Reserve 4 - Corey Hart 2.1 WAR
Reserve 5 - Michael Bourn 1.7 WAR

Did the outfielders list surprise you as much as it surprised me? The Giants had 2 of the highest WAR OF players? Really? Torres isn't doing all that much at the plate, although he has a high OPS of .844, but he scored outstanding in defense, saving 11.0 runs so far, tops in the NL. Aubrey Huff has basically been SF's top hitter all year, and that carried him into this spot. Braun, Ethier, and Heyward shouldn't be starting, no matter what stats you look at. Every team getting 1 player got Young and Bourn on this team over more deserving players like McCutchen and Willingham, but that's the system for you. I could write a whole blog post comparing these players, but I'll stop now before this gets any more out of hand. This group could lead to plenty of interesting discussions.

I'll be back with the other 3 parts throughout the week. Happy 4th everyone.


Carolina Liar - Show Me What I'm Looking For