NL Pitching WAR All Stars

With the pitchers, it's the same concept as hitters when using WAR. Again, it works as all encompassing stat, with starters getting a slightly bigger bonus than relievers. Instead of ERA, the WAR formula uses FIP (fielding independent pitching), which eliminates all factors that the pitcher cannon control. Again, I'm not implying that the all star team should be based on WAR alone; I'm just using this as an example of another way to evaluate a player, and assessing the validity of the stat. I'll break everything down going from starters, to middle relievers, to closers.


Roy Halladay 4.1 WAR
Josh Johnson 4.0 WAR
Ubaldo Jimenez 3.3 WAR
Adam Wainwright 3.1 WAR
Yovani Gallardo 2.9 WAR
Tim Lincecum 2.9 WAR
Clayton Kershaw 2.3 WAR
Randy Wells 2.3 WAR

(Actuals)

Roy Halladay 4.1 WAR
Josh Johnson 4.0 WAR
Ubaldo Jimenez 3.3 WAR
Adam Wainwright 3.1 WAR
Yovani Gallardo 2.9 WAR
Tim Lincecum 2.9 WAR
Chris Carpenter 1.5 WAR
Tim Hudson 1.5 WAR

(NOTE: Sorry for using the Blue Jays picture, but it was too good to pass up) How good are Halladay and Johnson? There will be a lot of great players in the league this year that won't hit the 4.0 WAR mark by the end of the year. Halladay is only 10-7, due to no fault of his own, and WAR doesn't penalize him for that. He's already pitched 7 complete games, an ERA of 2.33, with 3 shutouts, including a perfect game. His BB/9 (walks per 9 innings) is the second lowest of his career at 1.17 (league average is 3.38) and all his batted ball info is in line with his career numbers, suggesting we shouldn't see a regression in any direction. Meaning, he's pitching lights out thanks to his crazy precision and not due to any more luck than the average pitcher.

I don't think there are many casual baseball fans that would've guessed Josh Johnson has been every bit as good as Halladay this year. He's 10-3 with an absurd 1.82 ERA. In his matchup against Halladay that he threw his perfect game, he only gave up one unearned run. In his past 10 starts, he's given up a total of just 7 runs. His "worst" game in that span was giving up 2 runs in 8 innings with 9 strikeouts and 1 walk. All of his batted ball peripherals are identical to his career averages as well, so the Cy Young race should be awesome the second half of the year.

Ubaldo is a distant 3rd here mostly because of his high walk rate. He's already walked 44 batters, with Johnson 27 and Halladay just 18. Ubaldo has the crazy 14-1 record and 2.27 ERA but for being a great strikeout pitcher, his K/9 rate is a full strikeout lower than Johnson. If you've watched any of his starts, his stuff is just incredible and a lot of fun to watch, but all these peripherals show signs that he could regress pretty quickly. His LD% percentage is down to 14.1%, 3.5 points lower than his career number, and his BABIP is a .254, suggesting he's getting pretty lucky so far. All his peripherals are extremely similar to last year's numbers, so we'll see how much longer he can last.

Did Randy Wells on this list surprise anybody? Before this past Saturday, he went 11 starts in a row without a win. He's really looked awful for the most part, but his .345 BABIP suggests he's pretty unlucky so far. His FIP is 0.5 lower than last year when he went 12-10 and an ERA of 3.05, so he's basically similarly to how he did last year, but 6% are line drives this year that were ground balls last year. He could be someone to watch and see if his results eventually match his peripherals.

Personally, I think they nailed all the pitchers, although with San Diego having the lowest staff ERA in the majors, I would've like to see them get somebody. I'll assume they will once pitchers start pulling out of the game over the weekend.

Matt Belisle 1.4 WAR
Luke Gregerson 1.2 WAR

(Actual)
Evan Meek 1.0 WAR
Arthur Rhodes 0.9 WAR

I won't go into much here, because the sample size for relievers is so far, it's very difficult to quantify their results when they've only pitched 35-45 innings this year. Meek's stuff is not that of a normal middle reliever and he's pitching lights out, so this is a very deserving selection (although I fee McCutchen would've been more likely to make an impact during the game) Rhodes is a cool story because he's 40 making his 1st all star game and is a big part in keeping the Reds atop the NL Central. He's the only lefty on the roster so he should see some time.

Jonathan Broxton 1.7 WAR
Carlos Marmol 1.6 WAR
Heath Bell 1.4 WAR

(Actual)
Jonathan Broxton 1.7 WAR
Brian Wilson 1.4 WAR
Matt Capps 0.6 WAR

Really Matt Capps? Sure he has 22 saves, but his WHIP is 1.41, which is awful for a closer. The saves were over-valued here (like they always are), and they should've sent a position player from Washington for the game (Willingham, Zimmerman anyone?) This would've been an easy place to get one of the great arms in San Diego on the team.

That's all I got. I'll be back with the AL position players in a day or two.


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